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1. INTRODUCTION Cambridge Economic Policy Associates Ltd (СЕРЛ) has been engaged by die Government of Portugal to advise on efficient levels of cost of capital for regulated generators, with a particular focus on the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)-backed generators and the subsequent Costs for the Maintenance of Contractual Equilibrium (CMEC) scheme. At die request of the Government, this advice focuses the time period from 2000 to the end of 2010.
The timeframe for this analytical work has been extremely compressed — the project lticked-ott on 6th January, a full draft report was produced for the 20th January and the final report on 27 January. Our understanding is that the timetable has in large part been doveri by requests for informadon from the Troika (ECB, ЕЕ and IMF).
The compressed timetable has necessarily required an approach based on publicly available data, so for example there has been no real opportunity for discussions with the investment community (and those aedve in this community over the past decades) and limited opportunity to cross-check our approach with altcrnadve approaches. Notwithstanding these limitations, we have, with the support of the Ministry- of Economy and Employment and its advisers in our view been able to produce an analysis of returns that may be helptul to the Government in assessing the appropriate historic efficient returns for the generators in question.
The rest of this report is set out as follows: • Section 2 provides some background on the relevant generating assets in Portugal and assesses the level of risk in those assets and the relevant comparators.
• Section 3 sets out our approach to building a benchmark for the Portuguese generadng assets.
• Section 4 provides the results of our analysis of benchmark returns.
• Section 5 provides brief commentary on returns tor renewables.
The report is supported by a number of Appendices, namely: • Appendix 1: Details of Regulatory Decisions on Allowed Returns for Energy Networks in Portugal.
• Appendix 2: Comparator Companies.
• Appendix 3: W'ACC and Beta Estimates - Supporting Analysis.
• Appendix 4: Alternative Views on Risk-free Rate and ERP.
5 DE JUNHO DE 2012
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