II SÉRIE-A — NÚMERO 50 180______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Face ao cenário do Esboço Orçamental há a considerar as medidas adicionais tomadas no lado da receita fiscal que implicaram um menor crescimento do consumo privado, designadamente: não introdução do desconto da TSU para salários abaixo de 600 euros e aumento do ISP.

Adicionalmente, apresenta-se o seguinte gráfico que retrata a relação existente entre rendimento disponível bruto e consumo privado nominal e que corrobora a estimativa do MF.

Relação entre Rendimento Disponível Bruto e 10,0 Consumo Privado Nominal

8,0

6,0

4,0

2,0

0,0

-2,0

-4,0

-6,0

Rendimento Disponível Bruto Consumo Privado Nominal”

Projeção do FMI

Para o consumo privado, o FMI projeta um crescimento real de 2,7% em 2015 e de 1,5% em 2016. A justificação para esta evolução dada pela instituição, em resposta no dia 13 de fevereiro, é a seguinte:

“The IMF projects that the growth rate of private consumption will decline in 2016. To understand why this is so, it is instructive to look at the sources of strong consumption growth over the past two years.

In 2014 and 2015, private consumption enjoyed a post-crisis rebound, as activities postponed during the crisis (such as purchases of durable goods) resumed, aided by the sharp improvement in domestic confidence and the very favorable external environment (in particular, low interest rates and the falling oil prices). A significant amount of this post-crisis rebound in consumption was financed by lower savings of households, with the savings rate falling to a historic low of 4.0 percent. During that time, private consumption grew faster than GDP by about one percentage point, resulting in a rapid increase in the consumption-to-GDP ratio, now back to its pre-crisis level.

In 2016, we expect the post-crisis rebound in private consumption to moderate, as the pent-up demand is being exhausted. A good indication of the coming consumption slowdown is the weakness in imports observed in the second half of 2015, since private consumption and imports have historically been strongly correlated. In addition, even though the external environment is projected to remain favorable in 2016, it will be less so than in 2015, and the recent turbulence in global markets is a testament to that.

As your questions imply, the authorities consider fiscal policy stance to be an important determinant of private consumption. Recent Portuguese experience, however, suggests that such impact has been marginal. We estimate that there was a structural fiscal tightening of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2014 and a structural fiscal loosening of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2015. Nevertheless, private consumption grew by 2.2 percent in 2014 and is estimated to have grown by 2.7 percent in 2015.”

De acordo com a justificação do FMI o consumo privado terá recuperado em 2014 e 2015, após a crise. Considerando o ano de 2009 como o último ano de recessão económica, isto é de taxa de variação negativa do PIB em termos reais, o consumo privado ainda não regressou aos níveis do ano de crise (Gráfico 7). Para 2016, mesmo

UTAO | PARECER TÉCNICO n.º 3/2016 • Análise à Proposta de Lei do Orçamento do Estado para 2016

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