Preparing for tomorrow's crises and conflicts

ln his "Strategic Vision" published in October 2021, General Thierry Burkhard,

Chief of Staff of the French Armed Forces, stressed the fact that the "peace­

crisís-war" continuum used since the end of the Cold War no longer

corresponds to the conflicts in today's world. He suggested considering military

strategy in the light of three notions: competition, disputes and confrontation.

Competition consists in a balance of power governed by commonly accepted

rules of international law. When a competitor decides to break these rufes, it

enters the dispute phase, which is the war "just before" the war. Finally, if this

actor resorts to military force and provokes a reaction of at least an equivalent

level, it provokes a confrontation, the objective of which is to impose its will on

the adversary by force.

Over the past decade, the strategic environment has deteriorated due to

increasing disputes over shared spaces, which are by nature less regulated by

the rule of law and less protected than national spaces. We can see this

proliferation of contested spaces in different environments, not just in air and

sea, but also space, cyberspace and, increasingly, in the information field. This

is the context in which hybrid warfare strategies have developed, strategies that

combine military and non-military, direct and indirect, regular and irregular

modes of action, with the objective of destabilising the adversary while

remaining below the threshold of conflict.

The deterioration of the strategic environment and emergence of these hybrid

attacks require European states to strengthen both their situational awareness

and military capabilities. lndeed, in this context, European military commands

must be in a position to impose a favourable balance of power in the event of a

dispute and to engage in high-intensity confrontation, if necessary.

ln France and in Europe, the armed forces have been adjusting their

organisation for severa! years in order to take into account this new strategic

environment. ln France, the creation of a space command and the Air Force's

name change to the Air and Space Force in June 2021 heralded other

developments at both the EU and Member State levels. The EU Commissioner

for the Internai Market's, for instance, has announced on 25 January 2022 his

will to create a genuine European space command in the medium term.

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